Well the big night is here and I haven’t heard a word about it here, nor have I heard anything about an Oscar pool. I attribute it to Arnab’s exhaustion and the fact that the date has been moved up. Some predictions, no better or worse than Bill Murray’s. The Queen will be the suprise winner for Best Picture. why? It has broad appeal, i.e. is middlebrow enough for a general consensus, while the others are too specialized ( Little Miss Sunshine and Babel ), too alien Letters from Iwo Jima ) or too violent/cynical ( The Departed ). Scorsese will win the oscar for Best Director, though this film is the weakest of those he’s been nominated for. Pan’s Labyrinth will be the suprise total winner, getting awards for Best Foreign Film, Art Direction, Cinematography, Makeup and Original Score. It will,however, lose best screenplay to The Queen . Children of Men which should have been nominated for Best Picture will win only Best Adapted Screenplay. Babel gets shut out. The highly touted Dreamgirls wins for Hudson, Murphy and Best Song (it has 3 of the 5 nominations–please god let us not hear them all tonight). The main acting goes as expected–Mirren and Whitaker. Whitaker will give the most unusual speech and Ennio Morricone, winning the lifetime award, will charm as with his broken English, as those wacky foreigners do! Jokes will be….lame. Peter O’Toole will be there drunk and Nicholson will shout out something profane.
yes, i only just remembered that i’m the one who sets up the oscar pool. well, it saves you lot losing to me yet again.
i’m picking o’toole for a surprise win. you only win oscars for title roles in biopics if you aren’t playing a monster. who wants to give idi amin an oscar? there is a theory that large ensemble films win for best film because they employ more people and thus get more voters tied to them directly or indirectly. that means it is going to be either the departed, babel or letters from iwo jima, but two of them are all foreign. i am considering a surprise supporting actress win for the woman from babel. lots of academy voters have mexican nannies and this will be better than giving them a raise.
by the way, the holocaust is now definitively over. last year, tsotsi beat out the sophie scholl movie in the foreign film category, and this year there aren’t even any holocaust themed films in the short film or documentary categories.
best film departed. best director paul greengrass for the first 9/11 movie to be nominated for an oscar. original screenplay pan, adapted screenplay departed. helen mirren and peter o’toole best actors.
you’re both sadly mistaken about most of your picks. Arnab–do you remember the aptly titled Monster ? and didn’t I win last year? Or do I misremember? no Holocaust this year, so I’m going for Al Gore’s movie–it’s a covert slap at Bush.
michael, the exception to my rule is if a pretty actor/actress uglies up for a role. plus, i think you have to play a good black man to win.
Actually Michael and I tied for the win as I recall. Arnab won at some imaginary party. The British Academy didn’t give best screenplay to The Queen (their choice: Little Miss Sunshine), so I’m dubious about it picking up anything other than Best Actress tonight. I think Children of Men will win Cinematography. I predict United 93 will win Best Editing. The Departed will win Best Adapted Screenplay and LMS will win Best Original (though the Japanese woman is the true dark horse in the screenplay competition). I think Pan’s Labyrinth will walk away with four wins. Scorsese, Whitaker, Mirren, Hudson: predictably so (though I’m going to take a risk and root for Alan Arkin). Best Picture is up in the air. I liked Babel but didn’t love it and Letters from Iwo Jima is a very fine film (Watanabe was robbed); still, I could see Babel squeaking past The Departed and LMS; but if I have to choose, I’m going to say Little Miss Sunshine will win the final award.
Jeff–you and I rule! though this year you’re going down. Arnab– Training Day . I rest my case.
I believe that I won the pool last year. Or am I confusing that with my Oscar for best supporting actor? I love the scene where I bite my own nails out of my fingers as I refuse to divulge to myself the name of my cosmetic surgeon.
Scorsese will not win best director. The best picture will go to Little Miss Sunshine and there will be, I predict, one of the single most embarrassing moments in televised Oscar history. I won’t tell you what it is though.
I predict Alan Arkin will win, and Hudson, too. “Children of Men” will be robbed in cinematography.
Tune in later for more of my predictions.
Wait–this just in. I predict I’ll be too bored to watch more than 15 minutes of the show.
I predict An Inconvenient Truth to win best documentary, and I further predict that the earth will warm and millions will die and suffer.
I predict I will win next year’s oscar ballot. I predict that two years from now, Arnab will claim to have won the year before.
highlight so far…melissa etheridge smothered in Queen Latifah’s bosom, then commenting “It feels as good as you think it does.” you go, girl! on a sad note, the songs from Dreamgirls are worse than ever.
Ah yes John, you are correct; see #34.
My favorite moments: John C. Reilly, Jack Black & Will Farrell. The look on Eddie Murphy’s face every time the camera caught up with him (particularly when he lost). Personally, I’m pleased he was not honored. He was far superior in The Nutty Professor but his track record doesn’t merit this kind of award (at least not yet). Kate Winslet. I’m glad Pan picked up three awards, but I suspect (having only read the reviews) The Lives of Others is the superior film (perhaps I’ll dash off to see it in the next day or so). All that Dreamgirls musical excess (with cheesy staging by Condon himself) and then a documentary walks off with Best Original Song (priceless). Kate Winslet. The Leo love; I love Leo and am not ashamed. The opening testament to The Nominees (by Errol Morris) was smart, playful and well appreciated; on the other hand, Michael Mann and Nancy Myers had best keep their day jobs. Finally, the speeches were shit but Forrest Whitaker gave us something to hold onto (I think they should start playing music as soon as someone pulls out a list). Is Jack playing a cancer patient in some treacly drama for a Christmas release; the guy’s never looked so old. And finally, Kate Winslet.
I must confess I was off a bit in my three predictions (all proved wrong). There were, however, many (small) embarrassing bits, like when Will Farrell shouted “Look, it’s Jack Black!” when John C. Reilly emerged from the audience. Scorsese finally getting best director for The Departed is embarrassing. Al Gore is always embarrassing.
the most embarrassing moment was ennio morricone making so damn much of his lifetime award, like he had finally made it. at least scorsese took it with some humor. but the italian guy was so solemn and moved. and clint eastwood translating him? thank god! the translation was a tad more dignified than the original.
that being said, his score to The Mission is heavenly
I hate to be right: Nicholson and co-star Morgan Freeman are filming director Rob Reiner’s film The Bucket List, a buddy comedy/drama about two terminally ill men who flee a cancer ward to complete a list of things they want to do before they die. It is scheduled for release in November. Doesn’t that have turd written all over it?
jeff, you are so on top’a things!
i wish i had the mission soundtrack to listen to right now. music question: does anyone on this list know and like (love) richard bona? michael?
I don’t know Richard Bona…what would you recommend?
dick bona?
i just got Munia, The Tale, which i’ll be happy to copy for you. i don’t know his other discs, but i have a feeling they are just as good.
arnab, please take your racism elsewhere.
Come on Gio . . . it was to pure to pass up. Arnab deserves that one.
why didn’t sasha baron cohen get more camera shots? sasha, sonofabitch, i love you!