On the theory that the “academy” likes to be broad-minded and internationally-inclined, I would take as longshots Don Cheadle and Sophie Okonedo from Hotel Rwanda. particularly Okonedo since it is better to be broad-minded in a major but lesser category. Nobody’s seen it, but you know when genocide’s in the air, that great ACTING can’t be far behind. At 33-1 I am taking Winslet over Swank, since all the others are….er, foreign or something. Finding Neverland is 100 to 1 for Best Picture. nice odds but the academy takes a resolute and brave position against pedophilia. will the academy heal the wound between movies and TV by granting Alan Alda a best supporting actor? tantalizing, but he would have to beat both a black man in a heart-tugging role and a “breakout” actor in a little indie hit, two formidably ideological choices for the academy. The Incredibles is a lock. If I could afford to bet $10,000, I could make a nice $700 or so. plus I have a weird crush on Elasti-Girl. The Aviator will win both best picture and best director…finally “making it up” to martin scorsese for Raging Bull, Goodfellas and Gangs of New York. the topic is “safer”–no wife-beating, greasy Italians, funny- horrific violence or people saying “tuppenny fuck” and slicing up dead pigs–and it’s an epic treatment of a hollywood figure (for extra academy “self-regard” points). I expect a cut, if you take any of my recommendations. but, of course, I had expected to make a killing off Queen Latifah in Chicago when that overstuffed couch Zeta-Jones won best supporting actress! damn her and her creepy husband Lee Majors! any side bets on “Most Embarrasing Speech” or “Nearly Dead but Acclaimed Foreign Director Who Will Win Lifetime Achievement Award after Being Snubbed for Four Decades?” Will the academy have a sense of humor and give “Best Make-Up” to Passion of the Christ? it’s interesting how the Jews killed Our Lord and founded Hollywood. Discuss.
Monday, 28 Feb 2005 12:00 AM – (GMT)
Best Actor In A Leading Role
Jamie Foxx (Ray) -1667
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator) +1000
Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby) +1600
Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda) +2500
Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland) +2500
Actor In A Supporting Role
Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby) -250
Thomas Haden Church (Sideways) +275
Clive Owen (Closer) +700
Alan Alda (The Aviator) +3300
Jamie Foxx (Collateral) +4000
Best Actress In A Leading Role
Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby) -357
Annette Bening (Being Julia) +275
Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake) +1200
Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of Spotless Mind) +3300
Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full Of Grace) +6600
Actress In A Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett (The Aviator) -278
Virginia Madsen (Sideways) +275
Natalie Portman (Closer) +600
Laura Linney (Kinsey) +3300
Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda) +3300
Best Picture
The Aviator -250
Million Dollar Baby +200
Sideways +1200
Ray +3300
Finding Neverland +10000
Best Directing
The Aviator -149
Million Dollar Baby +120
Vera Drake +3300
Sideways +4000
Ray +5000
Best Animated Feature Film
The Incredibles -1429
Shrek 2 +800
Shark Tale +1600
michael, i think there is good money to be made on okenodo. what’s the minimum bet allowed? (by the way, i added the “more” tag to your post so it wouldn’t take over most of the front page–hope that’s okay.)
I’m a Scorsese fan and I really enjoyed The Aviator, but the more I learn about how difficult it was for two studios to cough up a scant $30 million dollars for M$B (which is one reason why this film doesn’t seem as grand as it should on screen), I am preparing for Eastwood to take the Oscar. Personally, I’d vote for Scorsese because he’s Scorsese, and I’d vote Eastwood for Best Actor because his performance is the most commanding and the most subtle of the bunch. Still, I’m guessing I’ll have to go microwave some bacon while Jaime Foxx does a little call and response, tears up, and gazes up to the heavens to thank his grandma.
Arnab,
the site for betting is Canbet.com–they are reliable as I dealt with them in the past (thank you, Brazil! 2002 World Cup Winners). I think you may be able to bet as little as $5, but you will have to have a neteller or firepay account I believe. as for shortening my post, it’s ok–as long as you promise to cut mike reynolds off after 20 words!
apparently the academy loves the actor-director which is why scorsese has been shut out so many times (i believe it was Ordinary People that beat Raging Bull..can you believe it! Ordinary Fucking People! apologies to Repo Man. and Kevin Costner and Dances with Wolves beat Goodfellas) so there is precedent but I think Eastwood has moved past the “dog on its hind legs” thing which gets the first time actor-director an award. that will paradoxically work against him and scorsese will win–unfortunately he gets embraced as his films get less significant.